Probable Chance of Showers - Essay ExampleBecause of the above increased reliance on statistics and probabilities, the chances of wrong weather predictions are always there. This paper analyses how concepts used in probability theory are employed by meteorologist to determine when rain will rain in a certain region an how many inches. In meteorological forecasting, the categorical forecast is one that has only two probabilities: zero and unity (or 0 and 100 percent). Thus, even what we call a categorical forecast can be thought of in terms of two different probabilities; such a forecast can be called dichotomous. On the other hand, the conventional interpretation of a probabilistic, forecast is one with more than two probability categories; such a forecast can be called polychotomous (Probabilistic Forecasting - A Primer) Dichotomous weather prediction is more accurate than polychotomous prediction.
